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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 50 games
76%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 37 games
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 32 games
69%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
81%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 25 games
72%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 24 games
63%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 23 games
78%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 23 games
65%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 44 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 40 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 36 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 35 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 29 games
62%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 28 games
54%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
bengan · 26 games
62%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 635 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
314 picks · 364 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 350 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
309 picks · 442 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
298 picks · 547 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
286 picks · 179 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
286 picks · 176 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
281 picks · 377 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:4
Tundra Esports 64%MOUZ 36%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherPure~
45% · 57 games50% · 172 games
GyrocopterUlnit
Gyrocopter
Sand King
Sand KingTopson
little data49% · 142 games
DoomForce
Doom
Mars
MarsRAMZES666
44% · 200 games58% · 103 games
Keeper of the LightSupream^
Keeper of the Light
Hoodwink
Hoodwink9Class
52% · 214 games50% · 207 games
RubickNARMAN
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
48% · 185 games57% · 32 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct38:19
Tundra Esports 63%MOUZ 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightPure~
56% · 111 games51% · 50 games
Shadow FiendUlnit
Shadow Fiend
Rubick
RubickTopson
47% · 326 games54% · 380 games
TinySupream^
Tiny
Mars
MarsRAMZES666
50% · 194 games50% · 273 games
Vengeful SpiritForce
Vengeful Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
42% · 253 games48% · 224 games
Dark WillowNARMAN
Dark Willow
Morphling
Morphling9Class
47% · 163 games56% · 120 games
Marcibengan
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 77%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2