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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 28 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 21 game
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 21 game
48%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 20 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 19 games
74%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 17 games
65%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 17 games
71%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 17 games
76%

Team Liquid

Luna
Luna
miCKe · 29 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 28 games
57%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 26 games
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 24 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
62%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 635 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
314 picks · 364 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 350 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
309 picks · 442 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
298 picks · 547 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
286 picks · 179 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
286 picks · 176 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
281 picks · 377 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total66% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:35
Xtreme Gaming 59%Team Liquid 41%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 52:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAme
50% · 145 games44% · 178 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightXm
52% · 89 games51% · 180 games
RazormiCKe
Razor
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXxs
45% · 90 gameslittle data
Sand King33
Sand King
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDy
63% · 41 game52% · 173 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickXinQ
49% · 264 games48% · 98 games
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct25:7
Xtreme Gaming 59%Team Liquid 41%
The model gave 59% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 23:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAme
49% · 121 game46% · 94 games
WeavermiCKe
Weaver
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXxs
45% · 143 games48% · 111 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Slardar
SlardarXm
57% · 122 games57% · 101 game
Primal BeastNisha
Primal Beast
Jakiro
JakiroXinQ
50% · 34 games47% · 85 games
TechiesBoxi
Techies
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDy
50% · 101 game51% · 130 games
SveniNSaNiA
Sven
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 66%
Accuracy by game1 of 2