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RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 7 games
43%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 6 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 5 games
40%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 5 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 5 games
60%
Sven
Sven
paw · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 5 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 4 games
25%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 40 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 28 games
39%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 24 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 24 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 23 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 20 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 18 games
39%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
379 picks · 635 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 366 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 350 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
312 picks · 442 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
298 picks · 548 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
288 picks · 179 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
287 picks · 175 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
283 picks · 379 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:28
Dragon Esports 45%Natus Vincere Junior 55%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 39:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritdualrazee
46% · 198 games51% · 71 game
Troll Warlordgotthejuice
Troll Warlord
Weaver
Weaverpaw
59% · 173 games47% · 127 games
Primal BeastNiku
Primal Beast
Dark Seer
Dark SeerNorma
47% · 185 games45% · 122 games
Vengeful Spiritpma
Vengeful Spirit
52% · 160 games
TinyDaze
Tiny
52% · 76 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed25:13
Dragon Esports 41%Natus Vincere Junior 59%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 46:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterpaw
51% · 232 games41% · 34 games
Medusagotthejuice
Medusa
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienddualrazee
51% · 40 games47% · 102 games
TimbersawNiku
Timbersaw
Magnus
MagnusNorma
54% · 106 games49% · 62 games
Dark Seerpma
Dark Seer
47% · 159 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
57% · 21 game
JakiroRiddys
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2