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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 3 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 3 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 3 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
23savage · 2 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Oli · 2 games
100%

LGD Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
niu · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 16 games
25%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 15 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 15 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 13 games
46%
Weaver
Weaversignature
shiro · 13 games
85%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Setsu · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
374 picks · 632 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 362 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 350 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
312 picks · 440 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
298 picks · 540 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
285 picks · 174 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
284 picks · 176 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 379 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:4
Aurora Gaming 48%LGD Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 28:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
50% · 113 games50% · 119 games
Ursashiro
Ursa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterJabz
47% · 70 games65% · 61 game
Lycanniu
Lycan
Faceless Void
Faceless Void23savage
51% · 139 games54% · 163 games
Keeper of the LightEcho
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickQ
44% · 252 games47% · 46 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Phoenix
PhoenixOli
42% · 161 game52% · 346 games
TinyPyw
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed5:16
Aurora Gaming 51%LGD Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 24:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker23savage
44% · 68 games43% · 53 games
Troll Warlordshiro
Troll Warlord
Zeus
ZeusLorenof
51% · 90 games35% · 21 game
Shadow FiendEcho
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark SeerJabz
51% · 174 games49% · 174 games
Pangolierniu
Pangolier
Marci
MarciQ
63% · 66 games53% · 122 games
TinyPyw
Tiny
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiOli
51% · 10 games48% · 38 games
Oracley`
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 51%
Accuracy by game0 of 2