RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dragon Esports
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 7 games
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 5 games
Ursaoften banned
paw · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 4 games
One Move
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 12 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
xn丶e · 11 games
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
Timbersawoften banned
SSS · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
383 picks · 638 bans
Gyrocopter
323 picks · 369 bans
Dark Willow
321 picks · 350 bans
Clockwerk
314 picks · 441 bans
Weaver
302 picks · 533 bans
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 388 bans
Pangolier
292 picks · 542 bans
Rubick
291 picks · 170 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 41%
Hero pool strength54% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:23
Dragon Esports 49%One Move 51%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 24:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursapaw
Shadow FiendEthereal
Puckdualrazee
GyrocopterWoE
Dark SeerNorma
EnigmaSSS
45% · 37 games
Spirit BreakerRein
Game 2prediction correct14:31
Dragon Esports 45%One Move 55%
The model gave 55% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 29:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenpaw
GyrocopterWoE
Batriderdualrazee
BeastmasterSSS
Vengeful SpiritNorma
Ember SpiritEthereal
51% · 120 games
ClockwerkRein
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 59%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2