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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 32 games
69%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
sayuw · 23 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 23 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 23 games
65%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 20 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
65%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 44 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 39 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 36 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 33 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 29 games
62%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 27 games
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
bengan · 26 games
62%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
390 picks · 640 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
326 picks · 371 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
320 picks · 351 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
318 picks · 441 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
308 picks · 534 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
299 picks · 399 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
297 picks · 553 bans
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
293 picks · 111 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:28
Virtus.pro 45%MOUZ 55%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 42:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordKiritych
47% · 93 games48% · 334 games
GyrocopterUlnit
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSquad1x
37% · 211 games52% · 230 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Pangolier
PangolierNoticed
46% · 318 games57% · 311 games
Primal BeastSupream^
Primal Beast
Rubick
RubickAntares
48% · 289 games54% · 98 games
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
Spirit Breaker
Phoenix
PhoenixFng
48% · 205 games62% · 143 games
Marcibengan
Marci
Game 2prediction correct25:26
Virtus.pro 48%MOUZ 52%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 49:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingKiritych
60% · 94 games49% · 168 games
SvenUlnit
Sven
Puck
PuckSquad1x
53% · 210 games53% · 108 games
InvokerSupream^
Invoker
Underlord
UnderlordNoticed
52% · 75 games53% · 191 game
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Rubick
RubickAntares
45% · 327 games46% · 170 games
Dark WillowNARMAN
Dark Willow
Snapfire
SnapfireFng
47% · 179 games42% · 248 games
Phoenixbengan
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 54%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2