Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Invictus Gamingloss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Marsoften banned
niu · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 16 games
Lion
Pyw · 15 games
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 14 games
Tusk
Pyw · 13 games
Puckoften banned
Setsu · 12 games
Weaversignature
shiro · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
392 picks · 644 bans
Gyrocopter
324 picks · 375 bans
Clockwerk
322 picks · 441 bans
Dark Willow
321 picks · 351 bans
Weaver
311 picks · 534 bans
Centaur Warrunner
305 picks · 402 bans
Pangolier
299 picks · 562 bans
Rubick
296 picks · 169 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total65% G2 Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:14
G2 Invictus Gaming 65%LGD Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 46:28.
Game 2prediction missed34:11
G2 Invictus Gaming 65%LGD Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 41:49.
Game 3prediction missed30:39
G2 Invictus Gaming 65%LGD Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on G2 Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 46:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Invictus Gaming · 65%
Series resultLGD Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3