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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PSG Questloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 44 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 39 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 36 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 32 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 29 games
62%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 27 games
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
bengan · 25 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 28 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 28 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
OmaR · 25 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 22 games
73%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 22 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 641 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
326 picks · 372 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
322 picks · 438 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
311 picks · 529 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
305 picks · 403 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
299 picks · 559 bans
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
297 picks · 112 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:33
MOUZ 51%PSG Quest 49%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 23:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinUlnit
44% · 38 games54% · 139 games
WeaverTA2000
Weaver
Brewmaster
BrewmasterForce
58% · 170 games37% · 60 games
SnapfireNo!ob
Snapfire
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSupream^
46% · 215 games50% · 132 games
DoomMalik
Doom
Jakiro
Jakirobengan
47% · 24 games53% · 150 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeNARMAN
55% · 171 game46% · 137 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct26:10
MOUZ 52%PSG Quest 48%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 36:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenUlnit
47% · 94 games51% · 49 games
BroodmotherTA2000
Broodmother
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
52% · 134 games51% · 197 games
Dragon KnightNo!ob
Dragon Knight
Rubick
RubickNARMAN
52% · 176 games49% · 74 games
SlardarMalik
Slardar
Invoker
InvokerSupream^
52% · 43 games49% · 116 games
SnapfireOmaR
Snapfire
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorbengan
51% · 20 games42% · 31 game
JakiroDukalis
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2