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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Azure Rayloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 29 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 26 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 23 games
78%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 22 games
77%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 21 game
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lelis · 18 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 17 games
59%

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
fy · 34 games
56%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 29 games
66%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 28 games
57%
Lion
Lion
fy · 27 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 22 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 20 games
55%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
lou · 20 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 19 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 641 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
326 picks · 372 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
322 picks · 438 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
311 picks · 529 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
305 picks · 403 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
299 picks · 559 bans
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
297 picks · 112 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:11
nouns 51%Azure Ray 49%
The model gave 51% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 32:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightYuma
48% · 74 games57% · 57 games
Ursalou
Ursa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGunnar
56% · 88 games40% · 44 games
Shadow FiendOri
Shadow Fiend
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinCopy
42% · 80 games48% · 121 game
MarsFaith_bian
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireLelis
46% · 75 games56% · 18 games
Jakiro天命
Jakiro
Elder Titan
Elder TitanFly
57% · 81 game52% · 158 games
Clockwerkfy
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed25:23
nouns 55%Azure Ray 45%
The model gave 55% on nouns — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 41:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarCopy
58% · 22 games50% · 119 games
Storm SpiritOri
Storm Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuma
52% · 115 games47% · 119 games
Windrangerlou
Windranger
Dark Seer
Dark SeerGunnar
49% · 189 games48% · 125 games
BrewmasterFaith_bian
Brewmaster
Marci
MarciLelis
55% · 137 games49% · 271 game
Rubickfy
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
54% · 339 games43% · 168 games
Phoenix天命
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2