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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Heroicloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Q · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 3 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
23savage · 3 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Jabz · 2 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Oli · 2 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Oli · 2 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 2 games
50%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 35 games
49%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 28 games
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KJ · 21 game
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 20 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 19 games
68%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 19 games
42%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 641 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
326 picks · 372 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
322 picks · 438 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
311 picks · 529 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
305 picks · 403 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
299 picks · 559 bans
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
297 picks · 112 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:32
Aurora Gaming 49%Heroic 51%
The model gave 51% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 47:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker23savage
50% · 35 games57% · 196 games
Faceless VoidK1
Faceless Void
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLorenof
42% · 65 games55% · 144 games
Storm Spirit4nalog
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastJabz
49% · 244 games53% · 104 games
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Tusk
TuskQ
45% · 137 games44% · 160 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonOli
50% · 246 games54% · 123 games
PugnaKJ
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed31:22
Aurora Gaming 50%Heroic 50%
The model gave 50% on Heroic — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:00:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniper23savage
46% · 30 games50% · 95 games
Monkey King4nalog
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
44% · 211 games52% · 101 game
Chaos KnightK1
Chaos Knight
Brewmaster
BrewmasterJabz
45% · 127 games60% · 110 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQ
46% · 130 games49% · 196 games
PhoenixKJ
Phoenix
Elder Titan
Elder TitanOli
57% · 79 games51% · 75 games
MarciScofield
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 50%
Accuracy by game1 of 2