Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Virtus.proloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Virtus.pro
Tinysignature
sayuw · 30 games
Batrideroften banned
sayuw · 24 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 24 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 23 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 20 games
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
388 picks · 643 bans
Gyrocopter
323 picks · 370 bans
Dark Willow
322 picks · 351 bans
Clockwerk
321 picks · 437 bans
Weaver
313 picks · 524 bans
Centaur Warrunner
305 picks · 404 bans
Pangolier
299 picks · 560 bans
Crystal Maiden
294 picks · 112 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:20
beastcoast 56%Virtus.pro 44%
The model gave 56% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 43:31.
Game 2prediction missed15:47
beastcoast 56%Virtus.pro 44%
The model gave 56% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:57.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 56%
Accuracy by game0 of 2