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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PSG Questloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 29 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 26 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 22 games
77%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 21 game
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lelis · 18 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 17 games
59%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 27 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 27 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
OmaR · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 22 games
73%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 22 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 21 game
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Malik · 20 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 643 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
325 picks · 373 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
322 picks · 435 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 351 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
315 picks · 523 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 406 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
300 picks · 565 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
298 picks · 112 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:11
nouns 47%PSG Quest 53%
The model gave 53% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by nouns in 40:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuma
45% · 231 game53% · 269 games
GyrocopterTA2000
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey KingCopy
44% · 125 games57% · 187 games
Storm SpiritNo!ob
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
49% · 220 games49% · 348 games
PangolierMalik
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
55% · 341 game47% · 248 games
LionOmaR
Lion
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
49% · 235 games53% · 100 games
Elder TitanDukalis
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct7:28
nouns 47%PSG Quest 53%
The model gave 53% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuma
46% · 163 games52% · 147 games
DoomMalik
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
54% · 313 games55% · 65 games
UrsaTA2000
Ursa
Razor
RazorCopy
46% · 201 game53% · 229 games
Dragon KnightNo!ob
Dragon Knight
Snapfire
SnapfireLelis
43% · 98 games52% · 183 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Jakiro
JakiroFly
46% · 25 games51% · 176 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2