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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
fy · 34 games
56%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 29 games
66%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 28 games
57%
Lion
Lion
fy · 27 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 22 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 20 games
55%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
lou · 20 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
fy · 19 games
42%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 44 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 39 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 34 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 32 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 29 games
62%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 27 games
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
bengan · 25 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
389 picks · 634 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
323 picks · 370 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 351 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
318 picks · 431 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
312 picks · 517 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 405 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
299 picks · 112 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
296 picks · 562 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 58%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:27
Azure Ray 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
50% · 149 games52% · 137 games
TerrorbladeUlnit
Terrorblade
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterlou
49% · 283 games51% · 282 games
PangolierForce
Pangolier
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritOri
48% · 92 games54% · 228 games
TinySupream^
Tiny
Snapfire
Snapfirefy
43% · 108 games52% · 17 games
Jakirobengan
Jakiro
Sven
Sven天命
49% · 203 games52% · 171 game
GrimstrokeNARMAN
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed11:32
Azure Ray 56%MOUZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidlou
53% · 181 game58% · 111 games
AlchemistUlnit
Alchemist
Pangolier
PangolierOri
51% · 273 games48% · 312 games
TinySupream^
Tiny
Clockwerk
Clockwerkfy
51% · 169 games38% · 84 games
DawnbreakerForce
Dawnbreaker
Enigma
EnigmaFaith_bian
51% · 112 games45% · 26 games
Jakirobengan
Jakiro
Enchantress
Enchantress天命
57% · 172 games44% · 374 games
RubickNARMAN
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 59%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2