Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Entityloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Tinysignature
sayuw · 30 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 24 games
Batridersignature
sayuw · 23 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 23 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
Rubicksignature
sayuw · 20 games
Entity
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DM · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Watson · 1 game
Elder Titan
Fishman · 1 game
Grimstroke
Kataomi · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
No[o]ne · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
394 picks · 620 bans
Gyrocopter
324 picks · 363 bans
Dark Willow
320 picks · 351 bans
Clockwerk
313 picks · 426 bans
Centaur Warrunner
308 picks · 407 bans
Weaver
307 picks · 509 bans
Rubick
300 picks · 165 bans
Crystal Maiden
299 picks · 115 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 66%
Hero pool strength60% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total59% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:24
Virtus.pro 41%Entity 59%
The model gave 59% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 35:48.
Game 2prediction missed30:9
Virtus.pro 41%Entity 59%
The model gave 59% on Entity — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2