Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 1:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LGD Gaming
Marssignature
niu · 15 games
Lion
Pyw · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Setsu · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 12 games
Tusk
Pyw · 12 games
Weaversignature
shiro · 12 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
394 picks · 620 bans
Gyrocopter
324 picks · 363 bans
Dark Willow
320 picks · 351 bans
Clockwerk
313 picks · 426 bans
Centaur Warrunner
308 picks · 407 bans
Weaver
307 picks · 509 bans
Rubick
300 picks · 165 bans
Crystal Maiden
299 picks · 115 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:27
LGD Gaming 50%beastcoast 50%
The model gave 50% on beastcoast — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 50:01.
Game 2prediction correct16:38
LGD Gaming 50%beastcoast 50%
The model gave 50% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 50:24.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 50%
Accuracy by game1 of 2