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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
MOUZloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 29 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 24 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 21 game
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 21 game
81%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lelis · 18 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
47%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 16 games
63%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 43 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 39 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 34 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 30 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 29 games
62%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 27 games
52%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
bengan · 23 games
61%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 619 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
324 picks · 361 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
320 picks · 351 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
310 picks · 425 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
309 picks · 406 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
305 picks · 506 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
302 picks · 164 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
299 picks · 115 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:28
nouns 47%MOUZ 53%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by nouns in 58:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYuma
50% · 156 games57% · 106 games
UrsaUlnit
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritCopy
46% · 53 games50% · 163 games
Primal BeastSupream^
Primal Beast
Dark Seer
Dark SeerGunnar
52% · 177 games49% · 264 games
PangolierForce
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
44% · 241 game55% · 182 games
GrimstrokeNARMAN
Grimstroke
Tusk
TuskLelis
48% · 138 games47% · 50 games
Oraclebengan
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed17:35
nouns 51%MOUZ 49%
The model gave 51% on nouns — the game was taken by MOUZ in 33:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYuma
54% · 137 games41% · 33 games
Phantom AssassinUlnit
Phantom Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
61% · 119 games46% · 160 games
Dragon KnightSupream^
Dragon Knight
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerGunnar
49% · 65 games50% · 160 games
BrewmasterForce
Brewmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
43% · 132 games52% · 58 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightFly
48% · 97 games52% · 139 games
GrimstrokeNARMAN
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 51%
Accuracy by game0 of 2