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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Azure Rayloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
fy · 32 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 28 games
57%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 28 games
68%
Lion
Lion
fy · 27 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 22 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 20 games
55%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
lou · 20 games
60%
Luna
Luna
lou · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 619 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
324 picks · 361 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
320 picks · 351 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
310 picks · 425 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
309 picks · 406 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
305 picks · 506 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
302 picks · 164 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
299 picks · 115 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:9
Aurora Gaming 47%Azure Ray 53%
The model gave 53% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 36:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter23savage
53% · 336 games45% · 182 games
Morphlinglou
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
42% · 201 game49% · 263 games
TinyOri
Tiny
Slardar
SlardarJabz
57% · 109 games51% · 162 games
BrewmasterFaith_bian
Brewmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQ
53% · 216 games44% · 224 games
Batriderfy
Batrider
Warlock
WarlockOli
52% · 39 games56% · 70 games
Chen天命
Chen
Game 2prediction missed27:3
Aurora Gaming 47%Azure Ray 53%
The model gave 53% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 38:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter23savage
45% · 282 games55% · 118 games
Chaos KnightFaith_bian
Chaos Knight
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLorenof
43% · 124 games55% · 217 games
Lifestealerlou
Lifestealer
Brewmaster
BrewmasterJabz
50% · 201 game49% · 364 games
TinyOri
Tiny
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQ
50% · 210 games49% · 206 games
Hoodwinkfy
Hoodwink
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenOli
53% · 316 games49% · 228 games
Enchantress天命
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 53%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2