Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 1:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Blacklist International
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
392 picks · 614 bans
Gyrocopter
323 picks · 359 bans
Dark Willow
320 picks · 350 bans
Clockwerk
309 picks · 423 bans
Centaur Warrunner
308 picks · 406 bans
Weaver
303 picks · 503 bans
Rubick
300 picks · 163 bans
Crystal Maiden
298 picks · 115 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Blacklist International
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:13
Blacklist International 40%beastcoast 60%
The model gave 60% on beastcoast — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 37:42.
Game 2prediction correct17:42
Blacklist International 40%beastcoast 60%
The model gave 60% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 38:35.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2