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CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
JustBetterloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Twisted Mindswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

JustBetter

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 13 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 13 games
38%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Astral · 11 games
64%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
SsaSpartan · 10 games
40%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
ThuG · 9 games
11%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
13%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Astral · 8 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Astral · 8 games
38%

Twisted Minds

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Pablo · 23 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Pablo · 19 games
26%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pablo · 19 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Handsken · 15 games
40%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shad · 14 games
36%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 14 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 14 games
43%
Sven
Sven
Shad · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
398 picks · 614 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
331 picks · 363 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
319 picks · 350 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
317 picks · 411 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
309 picks · 116 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
308 picks · 164 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 423 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
301 picks · 496 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Twisted Minds
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total58% Twisted Minds
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:28
JustBetter 44%Twisted Minds 56%
The model gave 56% on Twisted Minds — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 30:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerFocus
52% · 133 games43% · 81 game
Void SpiritAdzantick
Void Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightThuG
46% · 137 games55% · 224 games
WeaverShad
Weaver
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSkyLark
58% · 162 games53% · 83 games
UnderlordMinD_ContRoL
Underlord
Phoenix
PhoenixdEsire
47% · 159 games47% · 182 games
HoodwinkPablo
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
52% · 169 games45% · 190 games
SvenHandsken
Sven
Game 2prediction correct12:47
JustBetter 47%Twisted Minds 53%
The model gave 53% on Twisted Minds — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 27:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingFocus
48% · 175 games52% · 153 games
WindrangerShad
Windranger
Void Spirit
Void SpiritThuG
51% · 64 games48% · 43 games
Night StalkerMinD_ContRoL
Night Stalker
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSkyLark
54% · 168 games55% · 237 games
TinyAdzantick
Tiny
Monkey King
Monkey KingdEsire
50% · 91 game46% · 163 games
SnapfirePablo
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixSsaSpartan
50% · 239 games45% · 141 game
SvenHandsken
Sven
Model check result
Model favoriteTwisted Minds · 58%
Series resultTwisted Minds 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2