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CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Twisted Mindswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 12 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
30%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 10 games
10%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
22%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
50%

Twisted Minds

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Pablo · 19 games
26%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pablo · 19 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Handsken · 15 games
40%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 14 games
43%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shad · 13 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 13 games
46%
Sven
Sven
Shad · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 619 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
337 picks · 363 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
326 picks · 415 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 351 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
317 picks · 118 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
313 picks · 165 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
308 picks · 423 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
303 picks · 493 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Twisted Minds
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:29
One Move 53%Twisted Minds 47%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 23:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawSSS
54% · 108 games53% · 108 games
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
Dark Seer
Ursa
UrsaWoE
49% · 60 games38% · 59 games
Void SpiritAdzantick
Void Spirit
Invoker
Invokerxn丶e
56% · 82 games46% · 153 games
Vengeful SpiritShad
Vengeful Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressRein
56% · 107 games50% · 12 games
Nyx AssassinPablo
Nyx Assassin
43% · 25 games
JakiroHandsken
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct33:38
One Move 52%Twisted Minds 48%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 55:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linaxn丶e
42% · 79 games49% · 147 games
Ember SpiritAdzantick
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierSSS
54% · 336 games56% · 57 games
Chaos KnightShad
Chaos Knight
Alchemist
AlchemistWoE
58% · 87 games47% · 101 game
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
Beastmaster
Sven
SvenRein
48% · 190 games50% · 133 games
HoodwinkPablo
Hoodwink
48% · 254 games
RubickHandsken
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed15:37
One Move 52%Twisted Minds 48%
The model gave 52% on One Move — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 40:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritWoE
54% · 108 games55% · 48 games
BroodmotherShad
Broodmother
Timbersaw
TimbersawSSS
50% · 130 games51% · 72 games
Queen of PainAdzantick
Queen of Pain
Leshrac
Leshracxn丶e
56% · 83 games56% · 67 games
UnderlordMinD_ContRoL
Underlord
Phoenix
PhoenixRein
38% · 189 games45% · 163 games
HoodwinkPablo
Hoodwink
50% · 160 games
SnapfireHandsken
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 57%
Series resultTwisted Minds 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3