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CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Twisted Mindswin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dragon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Twisted Minds

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Pablo · 19 games
26%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Pablo · 18 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pablo · 16 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Handsken · 15 games
40%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 14 games
43%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shad · 13 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 13 games
46%
Sven
Sven
Shad · 13 games
46%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 7 games
43%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 5 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 4 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 4 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 4 games
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 4 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
404 picks · 630 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
345 picks · 365 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
337 picks · 432 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
334 picks · 125 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 354 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
321 picks · 163 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
313 picks · 422 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
312 picks · 576 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Twisted Minds
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:42
Twisted Minds 53%Dragon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Twisted Minds — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinShad
45% · 60 games50% · 96 games
Monkey Kingdualrazee
Monkey King
Slardar
SlardarStoneBank
54% · 35 games41% · 111 games
Chaos Knightpaw
Chaos Knight
Tiny
TinyAdzantick
56% · 87 games54% · 75 games
UnderlordNorma
Underlord
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPablo
49% · 58 games
Disruptor
DisruptorHandsken
58% · 42 games
Game 2prediction correct46:42
Twisted Minds 51%Dragon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Twisted Minds — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 1:01:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaShad
50% · 40 games55% · 95 games
Invokerdualrazee
Invoker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAdzantick
52% · 73 games49% · 153 games
Windrangerpaw
Windranger
Tiny
TinyStoneBank
48% · 142 games52% · 85 games
UnderlordNorma
Underlord
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPablo
49% · 63 games
Jakiro
JakiroHandsken
37% · 15 games
Game 3prediction missed31:13
Twisted Minds 49%Dragon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritShad
47% · 68 games48% · 77 games
Void Spiritdualrazee
Void Spirit
Tiny
TinyAdzantick
48% · 85 games52% · 92 games
Ursapaw
Ursa
Windranger
WindrangerStoneBank
50% · 38 games53% · 75 games
UnderlordNorma
Underlord
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPablo
49% · 41 game
Jakiro
JakiroHandsken
54% · 12 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTwisted Minds · 52%
Series resultTwisted Minds 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3