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1win Series Dota 2 Summer · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 36 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 32 games
66%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 30 games
57%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 25 games
60%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 24 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 22 games
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 21 game
52%

Team Spirit

Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 23 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 22 games
45%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 21 game
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 20 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 19 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 628 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
345 picks · 365 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
336 picks · 432 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
334 picks · 125 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 353 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
317 picks · 163 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
312 picks · 421 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
311 picks · 572 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total80% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:39
1w Team 36%Team Spirit 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 59:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMunkushi~
52% · 92 games41% · 146 games
MorphlingYatoro
Morphling
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendChira JUNIOR
48% · 44 games50% · 145 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordCloud
48% · 78 games48% · 135 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Rubick
Rubickswedenstrong
51% · 387 games55% · 101 game
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Disruptor
DisruptorRESPECT
57% · 160 games48% · 234 games
TinyLarl
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct13:31
1w Team 38%Team Spirit 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMunkushi~
52% · 26 games55% · 98 games
Monkey KingYatoro
Monkey King
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCloud
53% · 147 games51% · 52 games
VisageCollapse
Visage
Morphling
Morphlingswedenstrong
45% · 137 games49% · 101 game
ZeusLarl
Zeus
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
55% · 94 games48% · 181 game
HoodwinkMiposhka
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRESPECT
51% · 127 games44% · 99 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 80%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2