Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 3:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Night Pulseloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 43 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 38 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 33 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 30 games
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 28 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 27 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
Witch Doctorsignature
bengan · 21 game
Night Pulse
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
Clockwerksignature
JANTER · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 10 games
Doomsignature
Corrupted · 10 games
Lifestealeroften banned
V-Tune · 10 games
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 10 games
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
397 picks · 626 bans
Gyrocopter
346 picks · 366 bans
Centaur Warrunner
336 picks · 435 bans
Crystal Maiden
332 picks · 126 bans
Dark Willow
322 picks · 353 bans
Rubick
314 picks · 162 bans
Clockwerk
312 picks · 418 bans
Pangolier
308 picks · 572 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:25
MOUZ 57%Night Pulse 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordUlnit
Chaos KnightV-Tune
SlardarForce
MorphlingKami
Storm SpiritSupream^
PuckWorick
Witch Doctorbengan
LichHduo
GrimstrokeNARMAN
WeaverJANTER
Game 2prediction correct31:18
MOUZ 55%Night Pulse 45%
The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 46:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinUlnit
Chaos KnightV-Tune
PangolierForce
WindrangerKami
Ember SpiritSupream^
Monkey KingWorick
Witch Doctorbengan
LichHduo
GrimstrokeNARMAN
SnapfireJANTER
Game 3prediction correct28:4
MOUZ 56%Night Pulse 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendUlnit
MedusaV-Tune
Dragon KnightSupream^
MorphlingKami
EnigmaForce
PuckWorick
Marcibengan
HoodwinkJANTER
RubickNARMAN
PhoenixHduo
Game 4prediction missed5:37
MOUZ 56%Night Pulse 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc WardenSupream^
Shadow FiendV-Tune
BroodmotherUlnit
BeastmasterKami
TimbersawForce
Earth SpiritWorick
RubickNARMAN
Elder TitanHduo
Crystal Maidenbengan
Shadow DemonJANTER
Game 5prediction correct28:13
MOUZ 56%Night Pulse 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 36:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterUlnit
Troll WarlordV-Tune
TinySupream^
Dark SeerKami
PangolierForce
TimbersawWorick
GrimstrokeNARMAN
Elder TitanHduo
Oraclebengan
Shadow DemonJANTER
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 61%
Series resultMOUZ 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5