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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
1w Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 25 games
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 22 games
41%
Windranger
Windranger
re1bl · 21 game
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 20 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 16 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
OneJey · 16 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
OneJey · 16 games
25%

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 36 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 30 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
54%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 24 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 23 games
65%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 21 game
52%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 21 game
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
399 picks · 621 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
346 picks · 367 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
334 picks · 438 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
334 picks · 128 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 353 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
312 picks · 417 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
310 picks · 161 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 545 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 71%
Hero pool strength57% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total69% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:18
HULIGANI 38%1w Team 62%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 45:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendre1bl
52% · 27 games42% · 69 games
MedusaMunkushi~
Medusa
Slark
Slarkv1olent-
56% · 77 games53% · 55 games
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMiyaoo
43% · 115 games62% · 176 games
Primal BeastCloud
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOneJey
46% · 182 games53% · 96 games
Weaverswedenstrong
Weaver
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
44% · 196 games53% · 201 game
BatriderRESPECT
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct21:50
HULIGANI 39%1w Team 61%
The model gave 61% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 46:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenv1olent-
45% · 114 games57% · 93 games
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
Chaos Knight
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMiyaoo
50% · 153 games44% · 54 games
UnderlordCloud
Underlord
Primal Beast
Primal Beastre1bl
47% · 228 games50% · 325 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickOneJey
49% · 279 games56% · 251 game
BatriderRESPECT
Batrider
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorPanto
51% · 33 games49% · 84 games
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Game 3prediction correct16:35
HULIGANI 38%1w Team 62%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 37:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangerre1bl
46% · 193 games56% · 101 game
Monkey KingMunkushi~
Monkey King
Weaver
Weaverv1olent-
55% · 224 games50% · 185 games
BrewmasterCloud
Brewmaster
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMiyaoo
44% · 187 games49% · 323 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderPanto
52% · 295 games50% · 369 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOneJey
48% · 239 games49% · 160 games
DisruptorRESPECT
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 69%
Series result1w Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3