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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Night Pulsewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 37 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 27 games
44%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 24 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 21 game
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 20 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 17 games
41%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
JANTER · 11 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 10 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
Corrupted · 10 games
60%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 10 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hduo · 9 games
56%
Medusa
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 9 games
89%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
399 picks · 621 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
346 picks · 367 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
334 picks · 438 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
334 picks · 128 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 353 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
312 picks · 417 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
310 picks · 161 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 545 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total53% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:26
Natus Vincere Junior 51%Night Pulse 49%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 42:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenNiku
59% · 9 games54% · 70 games
UrsaV-Tune
Ursa
Sven
Svengotthejuice
49% · 115 games56% · 69 games
LycanKami
Lycan
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerpma
55% · 217 games44% · 103 games
Earth SpiritWorick
Earth Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorRiddys
57% · 88 games46% · 189 games
PhoenixHduo
Phoenix
Rubick
RubickDaze
44% · 203 games46% · 201 game
HoodwinkJANTER
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct32:12
Natus Vincere Junior 53%Night Pulse 47%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursagotthejuice
54% · 35 games51% · 119 games
MedusaV-Tune
Medusa
Brewmaster
Brewmasterpma
59% · 83 games57% · 155 games
EnigmaKami
Enigma
Pangolier
PangolierNiku
45% · 179 games50% · 92 games
Void SpiritWorick
Void Spirit
Rubick
RubickDaze
46% · 263 games47% · 217 games
HoodwinkJANTER
Hoodwink
Lion
LionRiddys
45% · 153 games50% · 130 games
UndyingHduo
Undying
Game 3prediction missed10:29
Natus Vincere Junior 53%Night Pulse 47%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 31:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealergotthejuice
50% · 152 games49% · 202 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Snapfire
SnapfireNiku
48% · 177 games46% · 93 games
BloodseekerV-Tune
Bloodseeker
Enigma
Enigmapma
60% · 91 game50% · 114 games
Monkey KingWorick
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierDaze
48% · 275 games48% · 284 games
PhoenixHduo
Phoenix
Lion
LionRiddys
53% · 186 games47% · 188 games
HoodwinkJANTER
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 53%
Series resultNight Pulse 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3