CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Hryvniawin 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
JustBetterloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Hryvnia
No games played over 6 months.
JustBetter
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 12 games
Batridersignature
Astral · 11 games
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 10 games
Grimstroke
Astral · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 7 games
Luna
Focus · 7 games
Weaversignature
Focus · 7 games
Windranger
Focus · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
400 picks · 625 bans
Gyrocopter
348 picks · 370 bans
Crystal Maiden
339 picks · 129 bans
Centaur Warrunner
337 picks · 441 bans
Dark Willow
321 picks · 353 bans
Rubick
313 picks · 161 bans
Clockwerk
312 picks · 417 bans
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 550 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 37%
Hero pool strength56% Team Hryvnia
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% JustBetter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Hryvnia 43%JustBetter 57%
The model gave 57% on JustBetter — the game was taken by JustBetter.
Game 2prediction missed
Team Hryvnia 43%JustBetter 57%
The model gave 57% on JustBetter — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia.
Game 3prediction correct46:60
Team Hryvnia 43%JustBetter 57%
The model gave 57% on JustBetter — the game was taken by JustBetter in 50:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteJustBetter · 57%
Series resultTeam Hryvnia 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3