1win Series Dota 2 Summer · BO1
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 0:1series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Spiritwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
Rubick
Mira · 23 games
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 21 game
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 21 game
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 19 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
402 picks · 618 bans
Gyrocopter
349 picks · 373 bans
Crystal Maiden
340 picks · 129 bans
Centaur Warrunner
335 picks · 442 bans
Dark Willow
321 picks · 353 bans
Clockwerk
312 picks · 416 bans
Rubick
312 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 553 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:25
beastcoast 15%Team Spirit 85%
The model gave 85% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 85%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1