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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 17 games
65%
Lion
Lion
Zayac · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Zayac · 14 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
58%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
42%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 11 games
64%
Techies
Techies
Zayac · 11 games
27%

Kalmychata

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 6 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
antoha · 5 games
20%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
xsvampire · 4 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Actor · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 4 games
25%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Actor · 3 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
404 picks · 612 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
352 picks · 371 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
341 picks · 129 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
335 picks · 445 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
319 picks · 353 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
312 picks · 414 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
312 picks · 159 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 558 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:8
Natus Vincere 65%Kalmychata 35%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 28:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNefrit
42% · 111 games55% · 151 game
WeaverRetsu
Weaver
Morphling
MorphlingYuragi
48% · 211 games54% · 147 games
BrewmasterAfterLife
Brewmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSancity
54% · 194 games45% · 169 games
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZayac
37% · 155 games55% · 55 games
Elder Titanantoha
Elder Titan
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMalady
55% · 127 games55% · 276 games
Shadow Demonxsvampire
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct49:27
Natus Vincere 65%Kalmychata 35%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
48% · 194 games49% · 166 games
Templar AssassinRetsu
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierSancity
53% · 412 games48% · 183 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
54% · 157 games53% · 161 game
Vengeful SpiritAfterLife
Vengeful Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingZayac
45% · 121 game53% · 134 games
Enchantressantoha
Enchantress
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorMalady
50% · 43 games47% · 283 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 78%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2