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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Twisted Mindsloss 1:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Night Pulsewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Twisted Minds

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Pablo · 19 games
26%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Pablo · 18 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pablo · 15 games
47%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 14 games
43%
Sven
Sven
Shad · 13 games
46%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Adzantick · 13 games
46%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 12 games
25%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Handsken · 12 games
50%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
JANTER · 10 games
60%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
V-Tune · 10 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
JANTER · 9 games
78%
Doom
Doomsignature
Corrupted · 9 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Kami · 9 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 608 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 370 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
341 picks · 129 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
333 picks · 444 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
319 picks · 353 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
311 picks · 414 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
310 picks · 159 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 558 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:16
Twisted Minds 39%Night Pulse 61%
The model gave 61% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 48:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherShad
51% · 49 games49% · 137 games
SvenV-Tune
Sven
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAdzantick
57% · 149 games44% · 50 games
Void SpiritWorick
Void Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerStoneBank
50% · 132 games46% · 114 games
DoomKami
Doom
Marci
MarciPablo
51% · 84 games43% · 188 games
PhoenixJANTER
Phoenix
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeHandsken
49% · 185 games58% · 110 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct24:33
Twisted Minds 39%Night Pulse 61%
The model gave 61% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 42:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightShad
46% · 94 games53% · 129 games
Naga SirenKami
Naga Siren
Monkey King
Monkey KingAdzantick
48% · 87 games56% · 100 games
UrsaV-Tune
Ursa
Doom
DoomStoneBank
54% · 170 games53% · 304 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Rubick
RubickPablo
43% · 304 games49% · 193 games
SnapfireJANTER
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixHandsken
45% · 288 games53% · 217 games
GrimstrokeHduo
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct14:27
Twisted Minds 38%Night Pulse 62%
The model gave 62% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 25:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenShad
51% · 105 games44% · 50 games
Chaos KnightV-Tune
Chaos Knight
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAdzantick
49% · 45 games54% · 69 games
BrewmasterKami
Brewmaster
Slardar
SlardarStoneBank
56% · 111 games50% · 93 games
Templar AssassinWorick
Templar Assassin
Marci
MarciPablo
57% · 91 game43% · 191 game
PhoenixHduo
Phoenix
Snapfire
SnapfireHandsken
44% · 170 games51% · 119 games
ClockwerkJANTER
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 70%
Series resultNight Pulse 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3