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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 36 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 29 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
52%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 24 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 23 games
65%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 21 game
52%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
55%

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 27 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 23 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 22 games
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
jesv · 20 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 20 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 16 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 13 games
62%
Techies
Techies
aik · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 608 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 370 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
341 picks · 129 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
333 picks · 444 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
319 picks · 353 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
311 picks · 414 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
310 picks · 159 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 558 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total71% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:9
1w Team 62%Nemiga Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 27:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMunkushi~
50% · 86 games55% · 55 games
BroodmotherLukas
Broodmother
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
44% · 129 games47% · 145 games
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Storm Spirit
Marci
Marciswedenstrong
59% · 83 games48% · 169 games
Primal BeastMikSa`
Primal Beast
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
52% · 74 games49% · 125 games
Hoodwinkjesv
Hoodwink
Batrider
BatriderRESPECT
51% · 273 games50% · 151 game
Phoenixaik
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct19:5
1w Team 64%Nemiga Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 18:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherMunkushi~
53% · 67 games50% · 253 games
GyrocopterLukas
Gyrocopter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
54% · 406 games49% · 269 games
Dragon Knightnicky`cool
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyChira JUNIOR
50% · 443 games50% · 203 games
DoomMikSa`
Doom
Marci
Marciswedenstrong
56% · 108 games48% · 327 games
Rubickjesv
Rubick
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
48% · 269 games42% · 241 game
Phoenixaik
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 71%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2