1win Series Dota 2 Summer · BO1
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 1:0series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Entityloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
402 picks · 608 bans
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 370 bans
Crystal Maiden
341 picks · 129 bans
Centaur Warrunner
333 picks · 444 bans
Dark Willow
319 picks · 353 bans
Clockwerk
311 picks · 414 bans
Rubick
310 picks · 159 bans
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 558 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 73%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total85% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:5
beastcoast 15%Entity 85%
The model gave 85% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 18:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 85%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1