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CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Montewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 13 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 11 games
18%
Lion
Lion
Jeezy · 9 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Stoic · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Stoic · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ArrOw · 4 games
25%

Monte

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 12 games
42%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
EcNart · 11 games
27%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 10 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 9 games
22%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 610 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 372 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
343 picks · 129 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
334 picks · 445 bans
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
319 picks · 353 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
311 picks · 414 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
311 picks · 160 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 560 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 28%
Hero pool strength51% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Winter Bear 51%Monte 49%
The model gave 51% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Monte.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 51%
Series resultMonte 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1