?
arrow_backBack to match
Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Tealoss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 42 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 37 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 32 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 30 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 28 games
64%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 26 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NARMAN · 19 games
58%

Team Tea

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
405 picks · 603 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
349 picks · 372 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
343 picks · 129 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
334 picks · 445 bans
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
319 picks · 353 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 563 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
308 picks · 161 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 413 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:26
MOUZ 73%Team Tea 27%
The model gave 73% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:00.
Game 2prediction missed29:38
MOUZ 73%Team Tea 27%
The model gave 73% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Tea in 42:24.
Game 3prediction correct26:39
MOUZ 73%Team Tea 27%
The model gave 73% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 48:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 73%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3