Чемпионат России 2024 по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
V1dar Gamingloss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bald Dynastywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
V1dar Gaming
Dark Willowoften banned
Groom · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
dizzying · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Groom · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Groom · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
dizzying · 1 game
Luna
dizzying · 1 game
Pudgeoften banned
dizzying · 1 game
Bald Dynasty
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
407 picks · 605 bans
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 375 bans
Crystal Maiden
348 picks · 131 bans
Centaur Warrunner
338 picks · 444 bans
Dark Willow
320 picks · 353 bans
Rubick
309 picks · 162 bans
Clockwerk
308 picks · 413 bans
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 569 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Bald Dynasty
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Bald Dynasty
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:14
V1dar Gaming 40%Bald Dynasty 60%
The model gave 60% on Bald Dynasty — the game was taken by Bald Dynasty in 34:47.
Game 2prediction missed24:52
V1dar Gaming 40%Bald Dynasty 60%
The model gave 60% on Bald Dynasty — the game was taken by V1dar Gaming in 45:30.
Game 3prediction correct47:28
V1dar Gaming 40%Bald Dynasty 60%
The model gave 60% on Bald Dynasty — the game was taken by Bald Dynasty in 59:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteBald Dynasty · 60%
Series resultBald Dynasty 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3