Star Series #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Stray Clubloss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Daxak Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Stray Club
No games played over 6 months.
Daxak Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
574 picks · 353 bans
Phoenix
482 picks · 576 bans
Rubick
464 picks · 245 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 378 bans
Pangolier
389 picks · 544 bans
Puck
333 picks · 887 bans
Beastmaster
323 picks · 820 bans
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Stray Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Daxak Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Stray Club 40%Daxak Team 60%
The model gave 60% on Daxak Team — the game was taken by Daxak Team.
Game 2prediction missed
Stray Club 40%Daxak Team 60%
The model gave 60% on Daxak Team — the game was taken by Stray Club.
Game 3prediction correct
Stray Club 40%Daxak Team 60%
The model gave 60% on Daxak Team — the game was taken by Daxak Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteDaxak Team · 60%
Series resultDaxak Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3