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1win Series Dota 2 Summer · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 34 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 28 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
52%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 24 games
71%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 23 games
65%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 21 game
52%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
55%

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 30 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 24 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 23 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 23 games
65%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
65%
Windranger
Windranger
Squad1x · 20 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 611 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
354 picks · 131 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
353 picks · 380 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
341 picks · 449 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 353 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
311 picks · 163 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 584 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
306 picks · 413 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total53% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:35
1w Team 52%Virtus.pro 48%
The model gave 52% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 1:18:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMunkushi~
44% · 80 games51% · 95 games
Chaos KnightKiritych
Chaos Knight
Lycan
LycanCloud
47% · 29 games49% · 191 game
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
52% · 184 games55% · 79 games
EnigmaNoticed
Enigma
Weaver
Weaverswedenstrong
48% · 108 games49% · 108 games
HoodwinkFng
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRESPECT
46% · 158 games58% · 86 games
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct40:13
1w Team 53%Virtus.pro 47%
The model gave 53% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 47:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
46% · 70 games53% · 153 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Enigma
EnigmaCloud
49% · 79 games51% · 83 games
Monkey KingKiritych
Monkey King
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightChira JUNIOR
51% · 115 games47% · 154 games
Vengeful SpiritNoticed
Vengeful Spirit
Weaver
Weaverswedenstrong
47% · 119 games48% · 125 games
TuskAntares
Tusk
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRESPECT
52% · 170 games60% · 38 games
Witch DoctorFng
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 53%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2