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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 0:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Undying
Undyingoften banned
Solo · 15 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 14 games
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Alberkaaa · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Alberkaaa · 9 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 8 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 8 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 8 games
63%

Kalmychata

Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
40%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
antoha · 5 games
20%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
xsvampire · 4 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Actor · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 4 games
25%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hina · 3 games
33%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Retsu · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 609 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 379 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
353 picks · 131 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
341 picks · 449 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 353 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
310 picks · 162 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
308 picks · 573 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
306 picks · 585 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:24
9Pandas 62%Kalmychata 38%
The model gave 62% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 30:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linakiyotaka
41% · 118 games50% · 123 games
Templar AssassinRetsu
Templar Assassin
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightDarkLord^
50% · 101 game48% · 165 games
BrewmasterAfterLife
Brewmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAlberkaaa
53% · 302 games46% · 170 games
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
Dragon Knight
Weaver
Weaversayuw
56% · 183 games50% · 211 games
Shadow Demonxsvampire
Shadow Demon
Disruptor
DisruptorSolo
48% · 174 games58% · 209 games
Crystal Maidenantoha
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed10:32
9Pandas 63%Kalmychata 37%
The model gave 63% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 25:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
53% · 186 games42% · 95 games
Chaos KnightRetsu
Chaos Knight
Weaver
WeaverDarkLord^
49% · 162 games46% · 189 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarAlberkaaa
55% · 113 games53% · 251 game
Centaur WarrunnerAfterLife
Centaur Warrunner
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSolo
46% · 185 games57% · 79 games
Elder Titanantoha
Elder Titan
Io
Iosayuw
52% · 92 games49% · 124 games
Grimstrokexsvampire
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 72%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2