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CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Montewin 2:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dragon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Monte

Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
QBFY · 11 games
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 10 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 10 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
QBFY · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 9 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
EcNart · 9 games
22%
Lina
Lina
Moonlight · 9 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 9 games
56%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 7 games
43%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 5 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 4 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 4 games
75%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 606 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 379 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
352 picks · 133 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
340 picks · 453 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 353 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
312 picks · 159 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
308 picks · 574 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 586 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed56:25
Monte 42%Dragon Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Monte in 44:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverCrystallize
49% · 37 games45% · 216 games
Svenpaw
Sven
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
54% · 126 games56% · 36 games
Shadow Fienddualrazee
Shadow Fiend
Batrider
BatriderMoonlight
57% · 80 games45% · 126 games
BeastmasterNorma
Beastmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
53% · 61 game
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenEcNart
51% · 74 games
Game 2prediction correct23:27
Monte 42%Dragon Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 42:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverCrystallize
56% · 71 game43% · 140 games
Svenpaw
Sven
Beastmaster
BeastmasterVladikTheHtiviy
48% · 88 games39% · 144 games
Ember Spiritdualrazee
Ember Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMoonlight
53% · 28 games58% · 137 games
Dark SeerNorma
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
55% · 117 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenEcNart
56% · 117 games
Game 3prediction missed32:7
Monte 43%Dragon Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Monte in 27:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallize
54% · 149 games57% · 177 games
Leshracdualrazee
Leshrac
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMoonlight
57% · 38 games46% · 244 games
Morphlingpaw
Morphling
Enigma
EnigmaVladikTheHtiviy
58% · 73 games41% · 120 games
BeastmasterNorma
Beastmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixEcNart
50% · 132 games
Tiny
TinyQBFY
44% · 149 games
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 67%
Series resultMonte 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3