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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Twisted Mindswin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
JustBetterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Twisted Minds

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Pablo · 18 games
28%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Pablo · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pablo · 15 games
47%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 14 games
43%
Sven
Sven
Shad · 13 games
46%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Adzantick · 13 games
46%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 12 games
25%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Handsken · 12 games
50%

JustBetter

Batrider
Batridersignature
Astral · 11 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 10 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 7 games
14%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Astral · 7 games
29%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 7 games
14%
Windranger
Windranger
Focus · 7 games
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 600 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
355 picks · 380 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
352 picks · 135 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
341 picks · 452 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 353 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
311 picks · 159 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
309 picks · 576 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
306 picks · 588 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Twisted Minds
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total56% Twisted Minds
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:30
Twisted Minds 54%JustBetter 46%
The model gave 54% on Twisted Minds — the game was taken by JustBetter in 30:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAdzantick
52% · 179 games60% · 107 games
Naga SirenFocus
Naga Siren
Wraith King
Wraith KingShad
50% · 57 games46% · 214 games
Ember SpiritThuG
Ember Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerStoneBank
48% · 40 games51% · 191 game
DoomSkyLark
Doom
Rubick
RubickPablo
46% · 267 games52% · 162 games
WeaverSsaSpartan
Weaver
Enchantress
EnchantressHandsken
46% · 168 games49% · 37 games
Shadow ShamanAstral
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct27:18
Twisted Minds 54%JustBetter 46%
The model gave 54% on Twisted Minds — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShad
52% · 110 games55% · 121 game
WeaverFocus
Weaver
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAdzantick
51% · 110 games51% · 91 game
BeastmasterSkyLark
Beastmaster
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderStoneBank
55% · 27 games52% · 53 games
Void SpiritThuG
Void Spirit
Io
IoHandsken
48% · 28 games32% · 27 games
Shadow ShamanAstral
Shadow Shaman
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPablo
53% · 67 games40% · 50 games
Winter WyvernSsaSpartan
Winter Wyvern
Game 3prediction correct35:4
Twisted Minds 55%JustBetter 45%
The model gave 55% on Twisted Minds — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 26:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightShad
52% · 87 games49% · 174 games
SvenFocus
Sven
Monkey King
Monkey KingAdzantick
47% · 80 games56% · 199 games
Ember SpiritThuG
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerStoneBank
57% · 153 games44% · 67 games
UnderlordSkyLark
Underlord
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPablo
51% · 172 games43% · 221 game
Dark WillowAstral
Dark Willow
Rubick
RubickHandsken
48% · 264 games52% · 95 games
IoSsaSpartan
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTwisted Minds · 56%
Series resultTwisted Minds 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3