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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 35 games
66%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 27 games
44%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 21 game
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 20 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 19 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 16 games
44%

Level UP

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Jeezy · 9 games
22%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 7 games
29%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
25%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Taiga · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Delight · 4 games
0%
Lina
Lina
Bor@nija · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 599 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
357 picks · 379 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
354 picks · 135 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
341 picks · 451 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
323 picks · 352 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
309 picks · 159 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
308 picks · 576 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
306 picks · 588 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 29%
Hero pool strength66% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total84% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:26
Natus Vincere Junior 71%Level UP 29%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 38:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmothergotthejuice
53% · 32 games51% · 113 games
Monkey KingCoblackk
Monkey King
Timbersaw
TimbersawNiku
45% · 124 games51% · 319 games
Pangolierififall
Pangolier
Void Spirit
Void Spiritpma
49% · 29 games63% · 76 games
EarthshakerJeezy
Earthshaker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRiddys
49% · 134 games
Rubick
RubickDaze
38% · 189 games
Game 2prediction correct40:22
Natus Vincere Junior 71%Level UP 29%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusagotthejuice
57% · 113 games51% · 219 games
Doomififall
Doom
Arc Warden
Arc WardenNiku
56% · 28 games48% · 13 games
SpectreCoblackk
Spectre
Mars
Marspma
44% · 115 games49% · 293 games
RubickJeezy
Rubick
Tiny
TinyDaze
47% · 193 games
Disruptor
DisruptorRiddys
48% · 76 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 84%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2