Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesiswin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NGNew Growthloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Tinysignature
Mac · 20 games
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 18 games
Windranger
Q · 18 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 16 games
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 15 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 15 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 15 games
New Growth
Dazzle
Panda · 2 games
Jakiro
Panda · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panda · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
StingeR · 1 game
Disruptor
Panda · 1 game
Enchantress
Panda · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
StingeR · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
570 picks · 353 bans
Phoenix
482 picks · 572 bans
Rubick
463 picks · 243 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 377 bans
Pangolier
388 picks · 541 bans
Puck
332 picks · 881 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 813 bans
Tusk
312 picks · 267 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:10
Team Nemesis 65%New Growth 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 35:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezrubikon155
Ember SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
Storm Spirit4nalog
ZeusJimmyCoff666
LargoJabz
ClockwerkKiri
Keeper of the LightLelis
Winter WyvernYamSun
Game 2prediction correct37:10
Team Nemesis 66%New Growth 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 38:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawJabz
Ember SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
Lone Druidrubikon155
HoodwinkKiri
Pangolier4nalog
BaneJimmyCoff666
Treant ProtectorYamSun
LionLelis
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 78%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2