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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 37 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 30 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
52%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 24 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 22 games
55%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 21 game
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
55%

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 26 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 23 games
52%
Batrider
Batridersignature
jesv · 20 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 20 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 13 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
Lukas · 12 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 592 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 383 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
356 picks · 137 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
343 picks · 450 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
323 picks · 349 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
308 picks · 575 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
306 picks · 383 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
306 picks · 156 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total69% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:6
1w Team 61%Nemiga Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerMunkushi~
48% · 195 games40% · 64 games
UrsaLukas
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
55% · 213 games49% · 218 games
Pangoliernicky`cool
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCloud
59% · 190 games44% · 55 games
UnderlordMikSa`
Underlord
Marci
Marciswedenstrong
49% · 75 games52% · 230 games
Rubickjesv
Rubick
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorRESPECT
46% · 37 games49% · 143 games
Crystal Maidenaik
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct25:14
1w Team 61%Nemiga Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 38:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMunkushi~
55% · 97 games58% · 55 games
Chaos KnightLukas
Chaos Knight
Broodmother
BroodmotherCloud
48% · 65 games55% · 145 games
Dragon Knightnicky`cool
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
53% · 248 games46% · 104 games
Dark SeerMikSa`
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
49% · 204 games46% · 145 games
Techiesaik
Techies
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorRESPECT
52% · 33 games42% · 198 games
Rubickjesv
Rubick
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 69%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2