CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SIBE Team
Rubick
sunset · 30 games
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 24 games
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 15 games
Dark Willowoften banned
sunset · 14 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
SOhY · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 13 games
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 13 games
Level UP
Tinyoften banned
Jeezy · 9 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 7 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Taiga · 4 games
Hoodwink
Delight · 4 games
Lina
Bor@nija · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Panda · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
413 picks · 590 bans
Gyrocopter
358 picks · 382 bans
Crystal Maiden
356 picks · 137 bans
Centaur Warrunner
343 picks · 450 bans
Dark Willow
323 picks · 349 bans
Pangolier
307 picks · 575 bans
Batrider
305 picks · 382 bans
Rubick
305 picks · 155 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 31%
Hero pool strength58% SIBE Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:19
SIBE Team 57%Level UP 43%
The model gave 57% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterrincyq
MeepoCoblackk
Void Spiritряф^^
Brewmasterififall
Rubicksunset
Keeper of the LightJeezy
ClockwerkSOhY
Game 2prediction correct29:21
SIBE Team 58%Level UP 42%
The model gave 58% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 29:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingrincyq
LifestealerCoblackk
Ember Spiritряф^^
Pangolierififall
Grimstrokesunset
BatriderJeezy
PhoenixSOhY
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 66%
Series resultSIBE Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2