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BLAST Slam VII · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 38 games
68%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 36 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 32 games
69%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 31 game
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 29 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 27 games
63%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Ace · 24 games
67%
Kez
Kezsignature
miCKe · 23 games
61%

Aurora Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 63 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 57 games
61%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 56 games
66%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 47 games
72%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 43 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 37 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
569 picks · 353 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
481 picks · 569 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
463 picks · 243 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 376 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 541 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
331 picks · 879 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
322 picks · 813 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
312 picks · 267 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total56% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:42
Team Liquid 45%Aurora Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 50:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealermiCKe
49% · 146 games52% · 152 games
WindrangerNightfall
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
46% · 506 games52% · 353 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAce
52% · 230 games53% · 221 game
AxeWs
Axe
Silencer
SilencertOfu
49% · 217 games48% · 255 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Lion
LionBoxi
49% · 237 games49% · 355 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct16:35
Team Liquid 46%Aurora Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
48% · 150 games49% · 28 games
Phantom LancerNightfall
Phantom Lancer
Drow Ranger
Drow RangermiCKe
54% · 36 games50% · 183 games
AxeWs
Axe
Slardar
SlardarAce
47% · 200 games46% · 184 games
WindrangerMikoto
Windranger
Techies
TechiesBoxi
47% · 84 games59% · 43 games
Winter WyvernKaori
Winter Wyvern
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectortOfu
59% · 67 games50% · 99 games
LionMira
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 56%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2