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CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
JustBetterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 11 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
30%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
22%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 9 games
11%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xn丶e · 8 games
25%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 7 games
57%

JustBetter

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 11 games
36%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Astral · 10 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 8 games
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Astral · 7 games
29%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 7 games
14%
Windranger
Windranger
Focus · 7 games
0%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 6 games
17%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ThuG · 6 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 607 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
368 picks · 383 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
359 picks · 138 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
356 picks · 462 bans
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
323 picks · 349 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
316 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
312 picks · 582 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 622 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% JustBetter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:37
One Move 47%JustBetter 53%
The model gave 53% on JustBetter — the game was taken by JustBetter in 43:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingWoE
53% · 213 games47% · 119 games
SvenFocus
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSSS
54% · 122 games42% · 38 games
Void SpiritThuG
Void Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightxn丶e
52% · 161 game42% · 44 games
AxeSkyLark
Axe
Venomancer
VenomancerRein
47% · 43 games53% · 155 games
PhoenixAstral
Phoenix
51% · 183 games
BatriderSsaSpartan
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed29:36
One Move 48%JustBetter 52%
The model gave 52% on JustBetter — the game was taken by One Move in 45:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaWoE
46% · 81 game49% · 96 games
BrewmasterSkyLark
Brewmaster
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSSS
47% · 207 games44% · 41 game
UrsaFocus
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxn丶e
57% · 195 games53% · 159 games
Ember SpiritThuG
Ember Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanRein
47% · 30 games50% · 124 games
EnchantressSsaSpartan
Enchantress
53% · 93 games
Skywrath MageAstral
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction correct35:15
One Move 51%JustBetter 49%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 32:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreWoE
60% · 21 game33% · 42 games
UrsaFocus
Ursa
Pangolier
PangolierSSS
52% · 208 games47% · 190 games
Ember SpiritThuG
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxn丶e
58% · 150 games50% · 53 games
SlardarSkyLark
Slardar
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRein
52% · 55 games46% · 136 games
PhoenixSsaSpartan
Phoenix
52% · 13 games
Nyx AssassinAstral
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteJustBetter · 53%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3