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CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 6 games
33%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 5 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 4 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 4 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
dualrazee · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 2 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
50%

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
aik · 25 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 22 games
55%
Batrider
Batridersignature
jesv · 20 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 20 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
60%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 13 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
Lukas · 12 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 604 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
369 picks · 385 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
357 picks · 142 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
355 picks · 462 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
323 picks · 349 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
315 picks · 158 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
313 picks · 579 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 622 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total82% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:28
Dragon Esports 32%Nemiga Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 43:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherdualrazee
40% · 52 games58% · 86 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Ursa
Ursapaw
51% · 78 games40% · 50 games
BeastmasterMikSa`
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNorma
55% · 236 games53% · 87 games
Dragon KnightLukas
Dragon Knight
50% · 78 games
Hoodwinkjesv
Hoodwink
49% · 65 games
Weaveraik
Weaver
Game 2prediction missed37:15
Dragon Esports 32%Nemiga Gaming 68%
The model gave 68% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 49:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
53% · 114 games45% · 68 games
LifestealerLukas
Lifestealer
Ursa
Ursapaw
50% · 88 games49% · 163 games
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierNorma
52% · 324 games38% · 41 game
UnderlordMikSa`
Underlord
54% · 143 games
Grimstrokejesv
Grimstroke
54% · 111 games
Crystal Maidenaik
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 82%
Series resultDragon Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2