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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Evil Rabbitwin 3:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 3:1
MAG.Yololoss 1:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Rabbit

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
100%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
QYQX · 2 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
QYQX · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
QYQX · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
100%

MAG.Yolo

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
czy · 6 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
czy · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
czy · 4 games
50%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 3 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 3 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
出省 · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
出省 · 2 games
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 607 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 388 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
363 picks · 142 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
356 picks · 463 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
323 picks · 345 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
316 picks · 579 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
313 picks · 162 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
312 picks · 628 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Evil Rabbit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Evil Rabbit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:41
Evil Rabbit 56%MAG.Yolo 44%
The model gave 56% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by MAG.Yolo in 50:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
52% · 86 games50% · 90 games
WeaverRA1NCLOUD
Weaver
Slardar
Slardarxiaoyu154
49% · 76 games42% · 69 games
MuertaTrazaM
Muerta
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeQYQX
52% · 103 games54% · 106 games
Crystal Maidenczy
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct29:10
Evil Rabbit 55%MAG.Yolo 45%
The model gave 55% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 20:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
54% · 174 games40% · 40 games
Monkey KingRA1NCLOUD
Monkey King
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerxiaoyu154
46% · 64 games43% · 129 games
Rubickczy
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorQYQX
64% · 58 games52% · 127 games
BatriderTrazaM
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct38:23
Evil Rabbit 55%MAG.Yolo 45%
The model gave 55% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 45:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
58% · 55 games52% · 60 games
Chaos KnightRA1NCLOUD
Chaos Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerxiaoyu154
48% · 74 games47% · 79 games
Snapfireczy
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressQYQX
48% · 44 games48% · 34 games
Ancient ApparitionTrazaM
Ancient Apparition
Game 4prediction correct42:22
Evil Rabbit 57%MAG.Yolo 43%
The model gave 57% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyButterflyEffect
53% · 184 games49% · 134 games
WindrangerRA1NCLOUD
Windranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerxiaoyu154
55% · 112 games46% · 45 games
VenomancerTrazaM
Venomancer
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeQYQX
59% · 70 games39% · 187 games
Hoodwinkczy
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Rabbit · 57%
Series resultEvil Rabbit 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4