Чемпионат России 2024 по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Derzhawinloss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
V1dar Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Derzhawin
No games played over 6 months.
V1dar Gaming
Dark Willowoften banned
Groom · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
dizzying · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Groom · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Groom · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
dizzying · 1 game
Luna
dizzying · 1 game
Pudgeoften banned
dizzying · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
422 picks · 612 bans
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 388 bans
Crystal Maiden
364 picks · 140 bans
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 467 bans
Dark Willow
321 picks · 346 bans
Pangolier
317 picks · 583 bans
Rubick
313 picks · 162 bans
Dragon Knight
312 picks · 637 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 33%
Hero pool strength55% Derzhawin
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% V1dar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Derzhawin 47%V1dar Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on V1dar Gaming — the game was taken by V1dar Gaming.
Game 2prediction missed
Derzhawin 47%V1dar Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on V1dar Gaming — the game was taken by Derzhawin.
Game 3prediction correct
Derzhawin 47%V1dar Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on V1dar Gaming — the game was taken by V1dar Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteV1dar Gaming · 53%
Series resultV1dar Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3