BLAST Slam VII · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 42 games
Tusk
rue · 25 games
Batridersignature
Collapse · 22 games
Jakirosignature
Panto · 22 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
Ringmaster
rue · 22 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 21 game
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
OG
Tiny
Yopaj · 16 games
Chensignature
Skem · 15 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Skem · 15 games
Primal Beast
Force · 14 games
Windrangeroften banned
Natsumi · 14 games
Axe
Force · 13 games
Jakiro
Skem · 13 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Tims · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
564 picks · 353 bans
Phoenix
479 picks · 568 bans
Rubick
460 picks · 242 bans
Tiny
436 picks · 373 bans
Pangolier
385 picks · 536 bans
Puck
331 picks · 872 bans
Beastmaster
321 picks · 809 bans
Tusk
310 picks · 267 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 24%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total74% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:14
Team Spirit 64%OG 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyYatoro
WindrangerNatsumi
LargoCollapse
DoomTORONTOTOKYO
Queen of PainLarl
Storm SpiritYopaj
Clockwerknot me
Treant ProtectorSkem
Hoodwinkrue
RubickTims
Game 2prediction correct28:10
Team Spirit 64%OG 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 25:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerYatoro
KezNatsumi
TidehunterCollapse
TimbersawYopaj
Ember SpiritLarl
LycanTORONTOTOKYO
Ringmasternot me
TuskTims
Treant Protectorrue
BaneSkem
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 74%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2