Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AcatSukiloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
AcatSuki
Mirana
Kiri · 6 games
Sven
NeKo · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Adrx · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 3 games
Grimstroke
Prada · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Prada · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
422 picks · 614 bans
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 390 bans
Crystal Maiden
367 picks · 141 bans
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 468 bans
Dark Willow
321 picks · 342 bans
Pangolier
318 picks · 583 bans
Rubick
314 picks · 159 bans
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 646 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:12
beastcoast 86%AcatSuki 14%
The model gave 86% on beastcoast — the game was taken by AcatSuki in 28:58.
Game 2prediction missed17:39
beastcoast 86%AcatSuki 14%
The model gave 86% on beastcoast — the game was taken by AcatSuki in 32:56.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 86%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2